Kazakh Leopard Following in the Steps of the Asian Tigers

Nezavisimaya Gazeta - Yuri Solozobov

President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s Nur Otan is the only political party represented in the new Majilis (lower house of the parliament). It polled 88.05% votes. No other political party scaled the 7% barrier. The United Social Democratic Party or USDP polled 4.62%, Ak Jol 3.27%. Political scientists had expected the opposition (USDP and Ak Jol) to make the parliament but voters decided otherwise.

How come parties of the opposition failed to scale the 7% barrier? There exist at least two explanations. The opposition was not ready from the standpoint of organization. USDP leader Oraz Jandosov admits that “discussion of consolidation took too long.” Another explanation is even more alarming in its implications. Parties of the opposition like the USDP fell victim of their own radicalism. They called for dismantlement of the effective state machinery and development of some “new Kazakhstan” in its place. Voters in their turn want stability and therefore opted for a more moderate policy of the reforms pursued by Nazarbayev. Kazakhstan as it is does have accomplishments to take pride in. Why would its citizens jeopardize the recent economic and political successes? Particularly for the sake of personal ambitions of former state officials with inflated egos. By the way, very many expected the regime to permit Ak Jol, constructive opposition party headed by ex-chief of the presidential apparat Alihan Baimenov, to make the parliament. They were mistaken. The Kazakh leadership opted for no-nonsense but transparent rules for the snap parliamentary election. It set out to establish a bona fide political system, not an imaginary political landscape existing only on paper. And if the Kazakh opposition is weak nowadays, then it is surely its own problem. The election last Saturday dotted all Is and crossed all Ts in the political masquerade in Kazakhstan but left political parties every real opportunity to keep working.

Viewed against this background, USDP and Ak Jol leaders’ refusal to recognize the outcome is clearly an attempt to make the best of a bad bargain. When election is monitored by more than 1,000 foreign observers, it is not exactly a “profanation” no matter what the losers say. Independent watchdog groups appraised the election as fair and transparent. “The election was fair and legitimate. All in all, it was in line with the acting legislation and international commitments of the Republic of Kazakhstan,” to quote observers from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. OSCE experts ended up with a more or less similar opinion.

“This is the first time our country got this appraisal. It proves that Kazakhstan is making progress in the correct political direction,” Nazarbayev said. The president called Nur Otan’s triumph logical and refused to se absence of the opposition from the parliament as a “tragedy”. “History of the world knows single-party parliaments that are quite effective,” he said.

The president of Kazakhstan was undeniably referring to the political experience of Lee Kuan Yew, author of the Singaporean marvel who dispelled the myth of universality of the Western model of democracy and state rule. Prime minister of Singapore between 1959 and 1990, Yew was simultaneously leader of the ruling People’s Action Party. Single-party parliament of Singapore was elected in 1968. Following that, the People’s Action Party either won absolutely all seats on the parliament or an overwhelming majority of them in campaign after campaign. Singapore was not any worse off for it. On the contrary, the country made some truly amazing progress in political and economic modernization.

Looking for its own model of democracy and modernization and examples to follow, the Kazakh leadership more and more frequently turns to the so called Asian model of democracy successfully tried in the Asian-Pacific region in the second half of the 20th century. South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore are known throughout the world as democracies where all fundamental principles of democratic rule are observed. On the other hand, their democratic systems do greatly differ from Western democracies. Political experience of the Asian-Pacific region sets an example for official Astana. Ideologists of the Kazakh reforms are convinced that the political system of their native country should be a synthesis of democracy (democracy as a way and means, not the ultimate objective) and national traditions of Kazakhstan.

Preparing the political reforms, Astana studied foreign experience. Kazakh leaders believe that “there are three models of democracy in the world these days: European, classic, and the new Afro-Asian one. Kazakhstan should decide which of them is best for its conditions, culture, population, and traditions.” Results of the snap parliamentary election shows that the Asian model has been chosen. Kazakh leopard is following in the steps of the Asian tigers.

Pipelines as a Foreign Policy Factor: The Americans Turn Their Attention to Pipelines in Central Asia

Rossiiskiye Vesti - Yuri Yeremin

The United States is playing its own energy game in the Central Asia-Caucasus region - and it doesn’t Russia to join in. One of the main objectives is to build pipelines that bypass Russian territory. Russia is taking steps to counter this.

Foreign experts in the energy sector suspect that the United States arranged a series of official meetings with leaders of the Central Asian and Caucasus states as a prelude to development of alternative oil and gas shipment routes from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to Europe bypassing Russia.

Visiting regional capitals, representatives of the US State Department openly admitted that Washington has long-term interests in the Caspian region and promoted diversification of routes intended to abolish Europe’s and America’s dependence on Russia in so crucial a sphere.

Daniel S. Sullivan, US Undersecretary for Economic, Energy, and Agricultural Affairs, signed an agreement with the Azeri Foreign Ministry on August 16. Washington will provide $1.7 million for the technical and economic assessment of two trans-Caspian pipelines to bring Kazakh oil to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and take Kazakh and Turkmen gas across the Caspian Sea. The agreement on the US grant is supposed to signalize to would-be investors that Washington is prepared to minimize risks in this project. Winner of the grant will be determined in a tender which will apparently be won US companies. Insiders in the Azeri oil industry imply that the US doesn’t want Russian involvement in these future pipelines.

Experts point out that President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan visited Kazakhstan on August 6 and 7 (not that long before the signing of the agreement) where he discussed with the Kazakh leadership all nuances of financial and oil cooperation, including interaction in construction of trans-Caspian pipelines.

Seeing the US go active in the Central Asian region, experts draw the conclusion that the US State Department makes an emphasis in relations with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan on its national interests in the energy and military spheres and that observation of human rights and freedoms has definitely faded into the background. When the 10th annual US-Azeri security conference in Washington on July 9 culminated in the traditional press conference, journalists asked spokesmen for the US State Department what they thought about the state of affairs with human rights in Azerbaijan. Their reply was quite simple: the US State Department acknowledges existence of problems in Azerbaijan in this sphere, but the need to solidify positions in this country and secure better opportunities for American companies was taking precedence.

All these grandiose plans charted by the United States and its allies generate justified fears that this exceptionally expensive colossal transport infrastructure may be rendered obsolete by shortage of hydrocarbons in the region and made a vast heap of scrap metal and an unbearable burden for Central Asian countries. Specialists maintain that neither Turkmenistan nor Azerbaijan have sufficient explored reserves to fill all these pipelines.

News Roundup - August 27, 2007

Reuters: Kazakhstan Halts Kashagan Oilfield, Pressures Eni
Kazakhstan halted work at the huge Kashagan oilfield on Monday and opened a probe into customs violations there, putting further pressure on the project’s Western operators led by Eni as it seeks more revenues…
CNN Money: Eni: Kashagan Consortium To Meet Monday With Kazakh Authorities
Eni SpA (E), Italy’s biggest oil and natural gas company by volume, said representatives of the consortium set up to develop the Kashagan oil field will meet Kazakhstan’s authorities Monday to discuss the key energy project…
RIA Novosti: Kazakhstan Suspends Eni’s Operation at Major Oil Field
The government of Kazakhstan has suspended for three months a license held by Italy’s Eni to develop the country’s largest oil field on the Caspian shelf, the Kazakh environment minister said Monday…
International Herald Tribune: Romanian Gas Company Rompetrol Sells 75 Percent of Shares to Kazakhstan State Company
The Rompetrol Group has sold 75 percent of its shares to Kazakhstan’s state-owned energy company, KazMunaiGaz — a move the Romanian oil company’s chairman said Monday would increase Europe’s alternatives to Russian supplies…
OilOnline: Kazakhstan Signs Deal to Link China with Caspian Sea Oil Fields
Kazakhstan and China have agreed to extend a crude oil pipeline to link mainland China to the Caspian Sea, giving Beijing direct access to Kazakhstan’s most lucrative oil reserves…
The Moscow Times: Kashagan Faces Russia-Style Squeeze
Kazakhstan appears to be taking a page from Russia’s rulebook on energy nationalism, threatening to withdraw the license of an international consortium led by Italy’s Eni as it seeks a larger slice of profits from the giant Kashagan oil field…
Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty: Is Russian Language Dying Out In Former Soviet Republics?
At the official opening of the Year of the Russian Language in Paris earlier this year, a giant banner proclaimed: “Russian Language: The First Language of Communication in Space.” …
The Australian: Close-up: Nursultan Nazarbayev
Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev won what The Independent described as a Soviet-style victory after his Nur Otan party picked up almost 90 per cent of the vote and a clean sweep of seats in the Majilis, or lower house of parliament…
Ferghana.ru: Ajdar Kurtov: Expulsion of the opposition: abridged history
Nur Otan’s total victory in the snap election of the Majilis (lower house of the parliament of Kazakhstan) on August 18 completed expulsion of the opposition from the national legislature. Ajdar Kurtov, an analyst with Asia Analysis Foundation, believes that the status quo was quite predictable and, to a certain degree, logical…
Kazinform: New Energy Minister of Kazakhstan Appointed
Kazakhstan Prime Minister Karim Massimov has introduced today new Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources of Kazakhstan Sauat Mynbayev to the staff…
Forbes: Italcemeni to Build 160 Million EUR Kazakh Cement Plant
Italcementi Group plans to build a 160 mln eur cement plant in southern Kazakhstan with an annual capacity of 1.2 mln tonnes of cement per year, the Kazakh Industry and Trade Ministry’s press service said, Interfax reported…
Reuters: Indicators - August 27, 2007
Kazakhstan’s economic indicators based on data provided by the State Statistics Agency, government institutions, the central bank and exchanges…