How Deep Is the Credit Crisis in Kazakhstan?

Kazakhstan is facing two major problems:

1) Large external short-term debt that the banks hold on their books and the upcoming refinancing of this debt (while facing an increased cost of new borrowing abroad).
2) Massive lending to construction companies and issuance of mortgages to general population (and the growing risk of default due to possible decline in the value of housing as collateral and the inability of people to pay the high rates of previously obtained loans).

To solve the first problem, the banks will be forced to (since the cost of external borrowing is not likely to decrease): (a) refinance their debt abroad at higher rates, (b) increase the cost of credit in the domestic market (raise their interest income), (c) raise tariffs on banking transactions (increase their non-interest income), (d) increase their capital (attract new shareholders’ capital), (e) reduce operating costs, (f) sell non-core assets (g) buy foreign currency in large volumes on the domestic market to repay external debts (which may cause the tenge to devalue).

This will lead the banks to “tighten their belts”, and people and businesses will see the bank lending becoming more expensive. That by itself would not be a crisis. There will be a crisis, however, if a second problem will not be resolved: the sharp decline in property values and the deterioration of the loan portfolio of banks. Then the scenario could be similar to the subprime crisis in the USA — a sharp increase in defaults on mortgages, declining value of the banks’ assets, and new risks to financial stability of banks that are least diversified and most exposed to mortgage and retail banking.

From what we know, it seems that Kazakh banks will be able to weather the current crisis. The government (including Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev) and the Kazakh National Bank have stepped in and made it clear that they will support the banks and will provide necessary liquidity if needed. The question, however, is whether the crisis is only concentrated in the banking sector. The Kazakh government would undoubtedly be able to rescue the banks if they were the only sector of the economy affected by the crisis and if the crisis only involved a sudden cut-off of foreign credit. If the disease is spread among the entire economy, though, it can prove too much to handle even for this energy-rich petro-state. And there are growing signs that other sectors are affected as well — the construction sector has been hit hard by the sudden draught of liquidity, the inflation has been running wild in the last few months, and the government even had to intervene to keep the prices of foods from rising. These symptoms may simply be the result of the banking crisis and overall uncertainty over what its consequences will be and may take care of themselves as soon as the government and the financial authorities bring the liquidity draught under control. However, should they be indicative of larger imbalances in the Kazakh economy, it could become much harder for the government to put together a bail-out plan not just for Kazakhstan’s banking system but also for the entire economy.

News Roundup - October 15, 2007

Telegraph: Angry Kazakhstan Props Up Bank Shares

Kazakhstan will respond to an “attack” by hedge funds by buying shares next week in the country’s banks that are listed on foreign exchanges to support prices, its prime minister said…

The Financial Times: Kazakhstan Plans Foreign Share Buybacks

Kazakhstan is considering buying the shares of its companies that are listed on foreign exchanges in a move to bolster stock prices and respond to credit rating agencies’ moves to downgrade Kazakh debt…

Times Online: Kazakh Authorities May Buy Back Shares on LSE of Banks Hit by Squeeze

Kazakhstan may buy back shares in some of its largest national companies listed on the London Stock Exchange, including Kazcommertsbank and Alliance Bank, as the country grapples with a financial crisis…

Reuters: Kazakhstan Cuts Oil Output Forecast, Blames ENI

Kazakhstan will produce 13 percent less oil than expected by 2015, removing 400,000 barrels per day from forecast global supply, due to delays in launching the massive Kashagan field, government officials said on Friday…

Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty: Kazakhstan: Global Financial Turmoil Hits Credit Rating

Kazakhstan, thriving on oil and gas exports, has long boasted one of Eurasia’s most dynamic economies. But it seems that not even the towering Altai Mountains can shield Central Asia’s economic giant from the turmoil swirling on international credit markets…

New Europe: Kazakh Prime Minister Sees Solution for Chevron’s Tengiz

Kazakh Prime Minister Karim Massimov said on October 12 a row with the Chevron-led Tengizchevroil consortium over sulphur contamination at the Tengiz oilfield “is almost solved.” He said Tengizchevroil should accept the Kazakh proposal and pay the Kazakh side for suitable storage facilities…

The Independent: Kazakhstan PM Steps Up Oil Fight with Western Companies

Hopes of a swift resolution to the dispute between the Kazakhstan government and a consortium of Western oil majors were dashed this weekend, as the Kazakh Prime Minister hinted at new legislation…

Institute for War and Peace Reporting: Kazak Government Signals Compromise in Oil Dispute

A threat by the Kazak government to take control of a major foreign-run oil project has raised a few concerns about investment risk, but the move appears to have specifically addressed problems with the giant Kashagan oil field, which is seen as vital to the country’s future…

Interfax Russia: Kazakhstan’s National Security Will Be Integrated with Global, Regional Systems - Nazarbayev

Kazakhstan plans to further strengthen its security system in the next few years, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev…

Malaysian Star: Much to Explore and Tap in Kazakhstan

Malaysians probably know Kazakhstan as a place near the Russian border or that it was where the first Malaysian astronaut (Dr Sheikh Muszaphar Shukor) was launched into space recently. But Kazakhstan has much more to offer, especially to local companies wanting to expand their businesses beyond local shores…

The Associated Press: Troubled Caspian Waters Await Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Tehran this week will include participation in a summit of Caspian Sea leaders. Iran, Russia and three former Soviet republics along its shores have been locked in tough talks on dividing the resources of the vast inland sea…

China Internet Information Center: China, Kazakhstan Build on a Solid Foundation

For Ikram Adyrbekov, Kazakhstan’s ambassador to China, the cultural events that make up the Days of Culture of Kazakhstan in China are symbolic of the strong cultural ties between the two countries…