Dmitry Medvedev looks far beyond an energy alliance with Astana

analysis

Dmitry Medvedev looks far beyond an energy alliance with Astana

By SRI ⋅ May 29, 2008 ⋅

Apparently, there was a great deal of political calculation aimed at sobering up adamant western leaders to the hard-line stance of the post-Putin Kremlin in Dmitry Medvedev’s first foreign trip to Astana as Russian President on May 22.

Whatever may be the true motives of Medvedev’s erratic overture, his friendly gesture was duly appreciated by his Kazakh counterpart Nursultan Nazarbayev, who had every reason to accept the new Russian leader’s trip as a mere continuation of the warm relations that existed under Putin. It appears that the two sides easily reached an accordance of views in signing the joint statement of bilateral cooperation and discussing a wide range of topics ranging from transport and communications to space technology development, the military partnership, interaction in Central Asia and within the UN, SCO and OSCE and, most importantly, energy policy.

Last year, Kazakhstan’s trade volume with Russia reached $16.3 billion and showed a 27 percent increase over the 2006 figure, but the tension provoked by the complexity of issues on the agenda hung in the air throughout the talks, which were profusely punctuated by sugary smiles and ostentatious amicability. At one point Medvedev blurted out, “Today a lot of economic problems … sorry, projects, exist between [our] countries.” Observers note that it was not an unintentional slip of the tongue.

While main political issues between Kazakhstan and Russia seem to be settled, mooted divergences in the energy area are hard to conceal. Having many partners in the game, Astana increasingly sounds resolute in its dialogue with Moscow. Irritably whisking off the “rumors’ about Kazakhstan intending to bypass the Russian transit route by joining the transcaspian pipeline project to deliver its oil to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, Nazarbayev assured Medvedev that Kazakhstan would not bypass Russia. “If all conditions are met, if it is advantageous to us,” he added ambiguously. Oil experts in Moscow fear Russian pipelines will fall short of capacity to handle the growing oil output in Kazakhstan after 2012 (Argumenty I Fakty, May 22).

By Farkhad Sharip (Eurasia Daily Monitor)