resources
Managing dissent, limiting risk and consolidating power: The processes and results of constitutional reform in Kazakhstan
In Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbaev believes his country is pursuing a unique model of constitutional and political reform that is defined by a moderate step-by-step process.
Parliament and political parties in Kazakhstan
The independent Republic of Kazakhstan came into being following its declaration of independence on December 16, 1991, from the Soviet Union, leaving it and the other fourteen new countries that joined it the unenviable task of quickly developing the institutions of government.
Kazakhstan: Country Outlook
FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
The president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, will stay in power in 2008-09, having consolidated his hold on Kazakhstan’s political structures, but could face growing dissatisfaction among businesses owing to the slow pace of reforms. Rising inflation and liquidity problems in the banking sector will be among the government’s main policy challenges in 2008-09. The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK, the central bank) might be forced to raise the refinancing rate from 11% if inflation remains higher than targeted. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts real GDP growth of 6.7% in 2008, rising to 7.1% in 2009. This is much slower than in recent years, and reflects the dampening effect of the global credit squeeze on Kazakhstan’s growth. High food prices and a loosening fiscal policy will exert upward pressure on consumer prices, pushing average annual inflation upwards to over 17% in 2008, from 10.8% in 2007. Disinflation should take hold in 2009. The possibility of more sustained downward pressure on the currency has risen, and greater volatility than in recent years is likely. The current-account deficit should narrow in 2008 because of higher oil prices, but it will widen again from 2009 owing to rising invisibles debits.
Big business and high-level politics in Kazakhstan: An everlasting symbiosis?
The managed democracies in the post-Soviet area are neither static nor inherently stable. In Kazakhstan, politics are defined by the tight but fluctuating relationships between top politicians and big business groups.
Kazakhstan’s emerging middle class
Kazakhstan’s development as a rising petro-state from the debris of the collapse of the USSR in 1991 is Central Asia’s leading success story.
EIA Kazakhstan Electricity
Kazakhstan has 71 power plants, including five hydroelectric power stations, giving the country an overall installed generating capacity of 17 gigawatts (GW), 80 percent of which are coal fired, and 12 percent of which are hydroelectric. Almost 85 percent of the country’s power generation comes from coal-fired plants located in the northern coal producing regions. Kazakhstan’s hydroelectric facilities are located primarily along the Irtysh river, which flows from China across northeast Kazakhstan.
EIA Kazakhstan Coal
EIA Kazakhstan Natural Gas
Kazakhstan produces about as much natural gas as it consumes, and following maintenance at Tengiz and Karachaganak in the last couple years, the country is poised to become a net exporter in 2008. The Kazakhstan Energy Ministry estimated that production during 2007 totaled 1,037 billion cubic feet (Bcf), over 70 percent of which was produced by international consortia at the Tengiz and Karachaganak fields. Gas production increased by over 8 percent from the previous year.
In 2007, the Oil and Gas Journal revised upwards its estimate of proved natural gas reserves in Kazakhstan to 100 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), putting the country on par with Turkmenistan. Most of Kazakhstan’s natural gas reserves are located in the west of the country, with roughly 25 percent of proven reserves situated in the Karachaganak field. This oil and gas condensate field reportedly has proven natural gas reserves of 48 Tcf. The consortium developing Karachaganak expects to produce 900 Bcf by 2012.
EIA Kazakhstan Oil
Kazakhstan sits near the northeast portion of the Caspian Sea and claims most of the Sea’s biggest known oil fields. Kazakhstan’s combined onshore and offshore proven hydrocarbon reserves have been estimated between 9 and 40 billion barrels (comparable to OPEC members Algeria on the low end and Libya on the high end).
Kazakhstan produced approximately 1.45 million barrels per day (bbl/d) of oil in 2007 and consumed 250,000 bbl/d, resulting in petroleum net exports of around 1.2 million bbl/d. EIA expects oil production in Kazakhstan to average 1.54 and 1.71 million bbl/d in 2008 and 2009, respectively (See Table 3b of EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook for updated estimates). Major producers include Karachaganak (250,000 bbl/d), Tengiz (280,000 bbl/d), CNPC-Aktobemunaigas (120,000 bbl/d), Uzenmunaigas (135,000 bbl/d), Mangistaumunaigas (115,000 bbl/d), and Kumkol (70,000 bbl/d). These producers account for 1 million bbl/d (or around 70 percent) of liquids production in the country. Other production is centered in smaller fields.
EIA Kazakhstan Energy Background
Kazakhstan has the Caspian Sea region’s largest recoverable crude oil reserves, and its production accounts for over half of the roughly 2.8 million barrels per day (bbl/d) currently being produced in the region (including regional oil producers Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan). Kazakhstan oil exports are the foundation of the country’s economy and have ensured that average real GDP growth has stayed above 9 percent for the last 6 years. Real GDP growth during 2007 averaged 9.5 percent.
Kazakhstan’s growing petroleum industry accounts for roughly 30 percent of the country’s GDP and over half of its export revenues. In an effort to reduce Kazakhstan’s exposure to price fluctuations for energy and commodities exports, the government created the National Oil Fund of Kazakhstan. Due to high oil prices the international reserves and assets in the oil fund have doubled in the last year to $20 billion in October 2007.
